As early results roll in from one of the most significant US elections in decades, the impact on UK-US relations becomes clearer. The result will influence the future of the relationship between the US and the UK, now led by its first Labour government in 14 years. Keir Starmer and his team have prepared for both outcomes: a Kamala Harris victory, with its more predictable implications, or a second term for Donald Trump, which would likely bring more volatility.
Political Relations
A Trump win could pose political challenges for the Labour government, which has close ties to the Democrats. Tensions have already risen, with Trump’s campaign filing a complaint against the Labour party, accusing it of interference after reports surfaced of Labour staffers campaigning for Harris in the US.
Despite his efforts to separate government from party politics, Starmer has been proactive in establishing contact with Trump, notably meeting with him for a two-hour dinner in New York in September. However, Starmer has yet to meet Harris in person, though he and his team are ideologically closer to her. Top Labour aides even attended the Democratic National Convention in Chicago this past August.
Security and Defence
The differences between the two candidates are stark, particularly on issues like NATO and Ukraine. Harris is expected to maintain current US commitments to NATO and support for Ukraine. Her running mate, Tim Walz, governor of Minnesota, has a strong pro-Ukraine stance, exemplified by his decision to sever state contracts with Russia early in the invasion.
Trump, however, has voiced a desire to pressure NATO allies to increase their defense spending and has even suggested the US could withdraw from the alliance. He is critical of the extent of US support for Ukraine, arguing for a quick resolution that could benefit Vladimir Putin, which would raise significant concerns for European security.
Climate and Environment
Under both Trump and Biden, US agricultural demands have been a sticking point in any potential post-Brexit trade agreement. The UK has resisted chlorinated chicken and hormone-treated beef, a stance that complicates trade talks for Starmer. Kemi Badenoch, however, may push for freer trade despite these concerns.
In his first speech at the UN General Assembly, Starmer positioned the UK as a leader on climate issues. A Harris win would align with this stance, but a Trump victory could jeopardize progress on climate initiatives, casting doubt over efforts to curb global warming.
Trade
Years after Brexit, a US-UK trade deal remains elusive. In mid-2023, then-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak acknowledged that neither country saw it as a priority. Both major US parties lean towards protectionist policies, largely in response to the concerns of rust-belt voters impacted by deindustrialization.
Trump’s economic agenda, particularly focused on tariffs, would make a trade deal even less likely. He has suggested tariffs as high as 100% on certain imports, which would negatively affect UK exporters. Harris, though less protectionist, is also unlikely to prioritize a bilateral trade agreement with the UK.
